When Will The Bomb Go Off?
Russia invades Ukraine. Tensions with China are simmering over Taiwan. The United States and South Korea recently held the largest joint exercise in years. China with a show of aerial force as United States diplomats visit Taiwan. An air strike by the United States kills Iranian-backed militants in Syria. The Taliban has retaken control of Afghanistan after the United States evacuation. The United States is in disarray politically with deep divisions digging ever deeper by the day, carving tombstone granite out of the bedrock of hitting rock bottom. World War III has begun, and while it is not in full-on theatrical story mode yet, the drums of war are banging softly in the crystalline distance waiting for the accepted first act, but where will the historical beginning of World War III take place? Let’s examine the possibilities.
What Is the Meaning of the Historical Beginning?
Before we examine the possible events and places where the beginning could take place, allow me to explain exactly what I mean by “historical beginning”. The historical beginning is the accepted actions that led to the United States entering the war even though there were and are always things going on behind the scenes that are small acts of micro-aggression that predicate this. The accepted historical beginning of World War I from the perspective of the American side is that 1) German submarines continually attacked United States merchant ships and 2) Germany was attempting an alliance with Mexico as a precursor to an attack on the United States. These were the things that swayed public support for entering the war and became the historical beginning of World War from America’s point of view.
What was the historical beginning of World War II from an American perspective? Clearly, the accepted start of World War II was the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. The day that will live in infamy was a bold and perhaps reckless attack as far as Japan and the Axis should have been concerned, why would they want the United States to enter the war when they have remained militarily neutral for the first two years since the Nazis invaded Poland? Tensions had simmered between Japan and the United States until America stopped supplying Japan with oil, metals, and other materials that Japan was using in its war effort to begin Eastward expansion into China. The United States and Japan were in a de facto war of non-aggression long before the Japanese kamikaze pilots attacked Pearl Harbor.
The United States
For the United States of America to have a justification to enter the fray, one of three things will need to happen:
1. A terrorist attack on the United States soil, a military base, or an attack against a military vehicle (i.e., Naval vessel, etc.). This would be the most likely way that the United States get fully and blatantly involved. Nothing gets citizens clamoring for war as much as an outright attack on the country and the want for revenge that comes with it.
2. An attack on a significant ally’s home soil. This could be enough to get the United States involved in a global war, but not as effective as an outright attack on America itself. It would have to be an organized military attack by a belligerent nation and not as typical terrorist attack.
3. A nuclear attack anywhere in the world. This would immediately turn into a global
Global conflict. This is of course the worst potential scenario as this could lead to nuclear retaliation and there would likely be no survivors of such a war.
Ukraine
Russia invaded Ukraine in March 2022 and as of this writing, they are still invading and attacking with no end in sight and with little resistance from the outside world. If I had to guess, the only reason that Russia has yet to overrun Ukraine is due to the guerrilla tactics of the Ukrainians. I’d be shocked if there were no CIA paramilitary and/or United States military elite level operatives at the minimum training the Ukrainian soldiers, if not fighting alongside of them.
If a nuclear or otherwise catastrophic bombing or attack is going to happen, it will most likely happen here. The second action that could lead to international intervention would be if allies of Russia also began to invade, with a likely actor being Belarus from the North. If that were to happen the world would have little choice but to intercede and the first domino would have fallen.
Taiwan
If China decides to occupy Taiwan by force for whatever the reason, then the United States would likely intervene on behalf of the Taiwanese people. The current Administration has said as much already, and their hand would be forced. Once these tensions escalate and there becomes an even heavier United States military presence in the region, if not outright combat, then this would give Russia the opportunity to advance further or intensify their invasion of Ukraine. This could lead to genocidal violence and/or Russia continuing to march to the East. In this regard, Taiwan is likely of great political and strategic significance.
The Middle East
Much like Taiwan, this region is of great strategic significance. The United States has a long and tenuous history of warring, occupying, and manufacturing regime change throughout the region. A notable ally of the United States, Israel, is constantly in conflict with its Arab neighbors and a potential global conflict would have much of the Arab world jumping at the chance to war completely with Israel. The Middle East is virtually always a powder keg with a fuse slowly burning, it wouldn’t take much to ignite it entirely and the United States would likely have no choice but to side with Israel during the conflict. It being in a key strategic location and possessing copious amounts of oil, oil that would be at a premium during an extended global conflict and it’s easy to see why their allegiance would be vital.
Conclusion
We, as a world, are speeding headlong down a highway of destruction. Ignoring the speed limits, going too fast and too distracted to read the signs. Many amongst us believe that World War III has already begun and is just waiting for the theatrical moment when the main characters can enter. Are they right? Only time will tell and we as a worldwide collective can only hope that they are wrong, because as the famous quote attributed to Albert Einstein says: “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.
The author, Jamie, is hopeful that the signs and warnings will be heeded and is grateful for the opportunity to enjoy each day to its fullest potential. He is also grateful that you have given some of your time to consider this writing and encourages you to look at the entire picture and decide for yourself which path that the world is on.
